Stock market timing is not an issue during a bull market. In the prevailing uncertain market conditions, however, you have a moving target.
Sure, there are people that get it right most of the time. And I must assume that some people are blessed with the aptitude and instinct for market timing. But I'm not one of them. To me market timing seems to be an art – not a science.
Many years ago I enrolled for a prestigious, and highly acclaimed, course to study all aspects of stock market trading. I really put my weight into it. I did fundamental analysis of listed companies for months on end - even though I found the exercise extremely boring.
I invested in the recommended technical analysis software and spent many nights staring at trend indicators and moving averages.
Eventually our class arrived at the coal face – well almost. We started paper trading. I invested as carefully as I could, doing all the analysis that we were trained to do. My expectations were high. Surely I was going to double my paper capital in no time!
Some months later I liquidated my paper capital at a huge loss. That happened to 90% of our class. My motivation to try again evaporated.
Years later a salesman talked me into enrolling for a Futures and Options Trading course. Once again I fell for the hype. Once again I was highly motivated and invested many hours of study and analysis. Once again I went the paper trading route. And once again I was wiped out!
After I retired, although wary, I decided that I have the time and I must investigate Forex Trading for myself. Yes, you guessed it! It did not work for me.
Unfortunately returns on retirement investments are so low that a portion of your investment portfolio must be invested in stocks. My portfolio manager is a professional with vast resources for analysis. Whenever he wants to invest in equity, he phones me and we discuss the merits of his recommendation. My studies were not all wasted time because it allows me to understand what he is saying!
Sometimes I feel an investment is too risky, but most of the time I go with his recommendation.
Is his market timing always right? No. But at balance he is more frequently right than wrong. I'm comfortable to leave stock market timing to the professionals.
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